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Chartertopia's avatar

This is utterly irrelevant but I can't resist the temptation.

"higher borrowing costs ab=nd other distortions"

Someone who makes my typoes! If your econ expertise weren't enough, this seals the deal.

Harrison Lewis's avatar

I’m also a great believer in the market and have seen the government bungle plenty, but with respect, I think you left out the part where the market’s wisdom led us into a situation in which we cannot make missiles, radar, airplanes or even basic ammunition without first asking China’s permission.

This rare earth problem isn’t too big for the market to solve, it’s too small for the market to solve. The gross value of rare earths we need is measured in the hundreds of millions. The cost to produce them is in the tens of billions. Chinese policies ensures there can be no margin sufficient to *ever* overcome that gap. And the cost of getting cut off is measured in the trillions. That’s an existential risk - both for American manufacturers and for America itself.

The investments have already - in a single year - broken America’s categorical dependence on rare earths from China. That vulnerability had existed for two decades.

It’s an existential problem that the market has not, cannot, and will not solve. Is correcting that vulnerability worth 0.5% of our defense budget? I’d argue so. Without that investment, we functionally don’t have a military anymore. We have the ghost of one.

The market similarly decided it was wise to put 90% of advanced semiconductors in a location our peer adversary has made clear they’re willing to take by force. The same adversary who routinely uses export controls (and non-market subsidies) for coercion and manipulation. In a war, they’ll use it for a lot more than that.

The chips (and rare earths) are an existential threat. It’s not a “nice to have”.

Moreover, the market didn’t decide what factories should produce in WWII. The precursor to the Defense Production Act did.

Back then, the market created a manufacturing powerhouse. But the market didn’t win WWII. Government policy interfering with that manufacturing sector and telling it what to make and in what quantities did.

The Japanese had better ships and the Germans better tanks. We could out produce them. Now it’s the reverse. We struggle to produce one warship a year. China can build 200. We have 103 merchant vessels (which are utterly necessary to support logistics in a major war). China has 11,000.

Should we accept this simply because our costs are 2-3x higher? Will shipbuilders pump billions into loss-making shipyards? Will banks loan for such a purpose?

That’s the market’s wisdom at work again. It’s yet another pair of existential threats.

And finally, there are some notable flaws in the claim itself. The government isn’t in fact terrible at investing. It wasn’t the market that spontaneously invented Velcro or GPS or the internet or the foundational technology for touch screens, voice recognition, or drones for that matter. Government investments through DARPA did.

The government’s “only role” isn’t to protect individual rights. It’s also to provide for the common defense - and sometimes (especially war time) that means allocating some investment dollars to things that make no short-term economic sense. Because without making and sustaining such investments, economic and personal freedom would be (and could be) right out the window.

All told, in $31 trillion economy, I’ll still sleep ok if we waste a few hundred million here and there - even billions - in trying to address some of these problems. I won’t sleep so well, however, if we don’t.

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